Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae83…0f9d
sports · 13 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$370 -41%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$368 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$128
Realized−$368
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 2 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$368
7 days−$368
14 days−$368
30 days−$368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $117 $116 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Under 8¢ 8¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 33¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 22¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Under 5¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 21¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Under 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $189 −$5 -3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $32 −$11 -36%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $75 −$33 -44%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $68 +$32 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $34 −$12 -35%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $291 −$259 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% −$80
politics 32% −$259
other 6% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $117 16m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $13 46m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 73¢ $42 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 73¢ $5 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 73¢ $25 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 73¢ $1 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $42 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $21 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 62¢ $111 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $147 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $4 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $1 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 21¢ $21 19h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $7 19h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $12 19h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $13 19h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $32 19h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 75¢ $75 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 22¢ $22 20h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $42 20h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 20h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $68 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-73.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -70.7% -73.5% 9% 9% -56.1%
≤30d 11 -70.7% -73.5% 9% 9% -56.1%
≤90d 11 -70.7% -73.5% 9% 9% -56.1%
all 11 -70.7% -73.5% 9% 9% -56.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.5% 9% -56.1%
10% -76.0% 9% -60.3%
15% -78.3% 9% -64.2%
20% -80.5% 0% -67.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.28 · official $129.93 · 45 history records