Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xae82…faf0 sports 721 markets active 2h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$49,358 (+6%) realized +$49,366 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%355W / 360L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$1,178per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$6,450est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,263
7 days−$15,490
14 days+$8,928
30 days+$4,476
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$31,740
other 8% +$14,380
crypto 1% −$1,014
world 0% +$1,060
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -3.7% -12.8% 46% 46% -24.4%
≤30d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 48% 48% -7.8%
≤90d 383 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 49% -4.4%
all 715 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 48% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 48% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 47% -13.7%
15% -26.6% 46% -22.0%
20% -33.8% 44% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,560) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,080 vs −$939 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$1,450
Realized+$49,366
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses355 / 360
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$6,450
Open positions6
Markets (closed)715 / 721
History coverage289d
Avg bet$1,178
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 715 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $840 $885 +$45 (+5%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $300 $251 −$49 (-16%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti Felix Gill 55¢ 57¢ $179 $187 +$8 (+5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $99 $85 −$14 (-14%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 68¢ $30 $34 +$3 (+11%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 34¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 316 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $1,870 +$2,130 +114%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 20 $4 +$1 +42%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $1,518 +$982 +65%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $1,033 +$1,584 +153%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $1,440 +$1,560 +108%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $4,140 −$4,080 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $2,337 +$2,663 +114%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,372 −$1,350 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $1,175 −$1,160 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 19 $2,356 −$2,319 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $2,693 −$2,640 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $1,035 −$1,020 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $941 −$940 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,020 +$480 +47%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $1,155 +$845 +73%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) Jun 18 $417 −$410 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $2,235 +$2,765 +124%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $3,499 +$4,501 +129%
Donna Vekic vs. Alexandra Eala: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $733 +$430 +59%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $955 −$50 -5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,402 −$75 -5%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $4,696 −$3,860 -82%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $541 −$540 -100%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $2,030 +$970 +48%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $1,191 −$1,170 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $550 −$540 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $1,522 −$75 -5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,243 +$492 +22%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $3,132 −$1,540 -49%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $40 −$39 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1,219 +$1,281 +105%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $1,492 +$1,508 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $896 +$604 +67%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 15 $975 −$960 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 15 $761 −$750 -98%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $970 +$530 +55%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $2,684 −$2,640 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $1,116 −$1,103 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $182 +$314 +172%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $935 +$1,065 +114%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $935 +$1,065 +114%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $1,075 +$925 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $279 +$221 +79%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $64 +$32 +50%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $3,285 −$3,240 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,437 −$2,415 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $955 −$945 -99%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $1,195 +$805 +67%
Set Handicap: Kudermetova (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$2 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti BUY Felix Gill 55¢ $181 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,035 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3,105 12h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1,372 17h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $1,175 19h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 46¢ $2,356 19h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2,337 20h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $326 20h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $720 20h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 20h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 21h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $9 21h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $9 21h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $9 21h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 60¢ $1,518 21h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 21h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 33¢ $2,693 21h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,035 22h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $351 22h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 70¢ $4 22h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 46¢ $1,870 22h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 39¢ $794 22h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $239 22h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 47¢ $702 34h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 47¢ $4 34h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 34h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 34h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 34h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 47¢ $89 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,450.03 · official $1,450.03 (match) · 2776 history records