Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae81…adc4 weather 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%24W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% $0
weather 5% $0
other 2% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 24 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses24 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage174d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C or below on June 4? Jun 20 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 16? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 22? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 21? May 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 01 $27 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in March? Apr 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 5°C on March 26? Mar 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 55°F or below on March 17? Mar 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 49°F or below on March 7? Mar 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $200? Mar 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 1? Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 28? Mar 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will The Weeknd have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Mar 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Mar 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Feb 01 $5,199 $0 +0%
Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? Jan 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Jan 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will DramaBox - Stream Drama Shorts be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Jan 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 20 $105 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $41 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $51 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $31 30d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $46 62d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in March? BUY No 100¢ $42 82d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 5°C on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $39 86d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 55°F or below on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $42 95d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $48 100d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $27 103d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 104d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 49°F or below on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $8 106d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $200? BUY No 100¢ $14 106d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 107d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 113d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 113d
Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, BUY No 100¢ $14 113d
Will The Weeknd have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY No 100¢ $10 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $30 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $606 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $763 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $533 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $2,374 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $346 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $543 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $716 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $569 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $1,023 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $153 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.04 · official $124.04 (match) · 64 history records