Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AE 0xae81…f04b sports 936 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,523 (-6%) realized −$14,522 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%505W / 429L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$36
14 days+$56
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$12,741
crypto 17% +$4,661
other 12% −$5,117
politics 2% −$931
world 2% −$827
economics 0% +$3
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +5.4% -4.6% 57% 57% -2.0%
≤30d 89 +3.8% -6.1% 63% 61% -10.4%
≤90d 238 -4.8% -13.9% 60% 54% -20.3%
all 934 -8.3% -17.0% 54% 48% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 48% -17.5%
10% -25.0% 41% -25.4%
15% -32.2% 32% -32.6%
20% -38.9% 24% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$200 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$14,522
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses505 / 429
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions2
Markets (closed)934 / 936
History coverage470d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 934 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Coco Gauff 75¢ 74¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jessica Pegula 65¢ 62¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $19 +$17 +90%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $15 +$11 +73%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $33 −$13 -39%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $12 +$9 +76%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $24 +$9 +40%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $15 +$9 +57%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $8 +$7 +79%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $13 −$7 -58%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $4 −$2 -55%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $2 $0 +26%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $59 −$9 -16%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $25 −$15 -58%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $48 +$28 +58%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $35 +$14 +41%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $19 +$16 +86%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $11 −$10 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $23 −$18 -78%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $14 +$9 +67%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $15 −$1 -9%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $21 −$21 -99%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $15 +$5 +36%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $10 +$6 +55%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $15 +$10 +70%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 09 $15 $0 -2%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $12 +$3 +29%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 09 $11 +$1 +12%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $9 −$9 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $5 +$4 +70%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $40 −$34 -86%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $42 −$28 -67%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $61 +$15 +24%
Svitolina vs. Kostyuk: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $30 +$11 +38%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $40 +$21 +52%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $40 −$40 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $93 +$23 +24%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $40 +$25 +62%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $77 +$38 +49%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $28 +$20 +70%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $100 +$8 +8%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 31 $31 −$30 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $55 −$55 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $17 −$16 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $9 +$7 +73%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $9 −$9 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $67 −$66 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Solana Sierra vs Sorana Cirstea May 29 $50 +$16 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 75¢ $30 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 65¢ $20 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $5 16h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $26 16h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $14 17h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 57¢ $15 18h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Sara Bejlek 38¢ $8 19h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 56¢ $12 19h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 44¢ $12 19h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 75¢ $21 20h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 56¢ $12 22h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 100¢ $33 22h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 71¢ $24 26h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $15 34h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $15 34h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $8 40h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Elise Mertens 64¢ $5 44h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 28¢ $5 44h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 64¢ $13 46h
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 74¢ $2 4d
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 100¢ $2 4d
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 79¢ $2 4d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ $2 4d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 73¢ $2 4d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard SELL Daniil Medvedev 15¢ $2 4d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 84¢ $10 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria SELL Elena Rybakina 35¢ $10 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 82¢ $25 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $23 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.63 · official $48.63 (match) · 2317 history records