Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AE 0xae81…5314 sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$110 (+11%) realized +$118 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$63
14 days−$79
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$116
other 43% −$20
world 9% +$29
politics 4% −$9
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -16.0% -24.0% 20% 20% -41.5%
≤30d 25 -20.7% -28.3% 32% 32% -13.0%
≤90d 26 -15.2% -23.3% 35% 35% -0.6%
all 32 -6.4% -15.4% 34% 34% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 34% +4.0%
10% -23.5% 34% -6.0%
15% -30.8% 34% -15.1%
20% -37.6% 34% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$15 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$118
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions8
Markets (closed)32 / 41
History coverage127d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 50¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+7%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 31¢ 23¢ $35 $26 −$9 (-26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+27%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $23 −$1 -6%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$49 +473%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$21 +70%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$42 +206%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +90%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $30 +$16 +52%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $81 +$57 +70%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $71 +$86 +121%
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-04-04? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) Mar 26 $15 +$37 +245%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 26 $30 −$14 -46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? Feb 28 $25 +$57 +226%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 21 $39 −$14 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 19¢ $10 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 25h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $20 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 38¢ $22 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $23 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 4d
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 5d
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 7d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 9d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 9d
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 10d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 10d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $52 10d
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 11d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 11d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 11d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.58 · official $196.58 (match) · 82 history records