Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae7f…65a2
crypto · 1367 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$591 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$576 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$576
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses629 / 736
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1365 / 1367
History coverage81d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1365 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$55
14 days−$955
30 days−$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Up 51¢ 14¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Up 51¢ 10¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-79%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$3 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$9 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$10 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$7 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $9 +$11 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$9 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$591
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -7.8% -16.6% 47% 47% -16.1%
≤30d 392 -7.2% -16.1% 43% 43% -18.4%
≤90d 1365 -3.9% -13.1% 46% 45% -14.0%
all 1365 -3.9% -13.1% 46% 45% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 45% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 45% -22.2%
15% -29.0% 44% -29.8%
20% -36.0% 43% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.11 · official $5.11 (match) · 3500 history records