Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae7f…44af other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 945d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,151 (-4%) realized −$3,228 · open +$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate54%74W / 63L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$537per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$1,099now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days+$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$1,032
crypto 9% −$636
sports 8% −$1,562
world 1% +$159
politics 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -20.3% -27.9% 33% 33% -10.8%
≤30d 8 +70.5% +54.3% 50% 38% +65.8%
≤90d 9 +57.1% +42.2% 44% 33% -3.5%
all 137 -14.3% -22.5% 54% 35% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 35% -13.4%
10% -29.9% 27% -21.7%
15% -36.7% 19% -29.2%
20% -42.9% 12% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$182 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

945d coverage
Net worth$1,099
Realized−$3,228
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses74 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage945d
Avg bet$537
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 93¢ 100¢ $1,022 $1,099 +$77 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$29 +14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $47 −$25 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$39 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $145 +$370 +256%
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Mar 25 $595 −$295 -50%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $7,829 +$2,649 +34%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $12,655 +$96 +1%
Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $135 −$92 -68%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $2,107 −$1,925 -91%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $1,269 −$434 -34%
Solana Up or Down - August 23, 5AM ET Aug 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum above $4200 on August 22? Aug 23 $25 +$5 +20%
Avalanche vs. Blackhawks Apr 16 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Apr 03 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-04? Jan 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-04? Jan 04 $15 +$5 +35%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-04? Jan 04 $19 +$6 +30%
Mavericks vs. Jazz Jan 04 $153 −$153 -100%
Eagles vs. Cowboys Nov 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Titans vs. Chargers Nov 11 $50 +$14 +28%
Jets vs. Cardinals Nov 11 $40 +$49 +122%
Will Chelsea vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Nov 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Rockets vs. Pistons Nov 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks Nov 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Spurs win on 2024-11-10? Nov 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle end in a draw? Nov 10 $25 +$11 +43%
Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-10? Nov 10 $100 +$39 +39%
Will Wolves vs. Southampton end in a draw? Nov 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? Nov 10 $57 −$57 -100%
Will West Ham vs. Everton end in a draw? Nov 10 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2024-11-09? Nov 10 $33 +$50 +150%
Will Brentford win on 2024-11-09? Nov 10 $37 +$63 +170%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? Nov 10 $68 +$32 +47%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $116 +$6 +5%
Will Juventus beat LOSC Lille? Nov 06 $11 −$11 -100%
2024 September hottest on record? Nov 05 $33 −$33 -100%
WNBA: Sun vs. Lynx Game 4 Oct 12 $1,162 −$412 -35%
Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 11? Oct 09 $369 +$14 +4%
Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi? Oct 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Chelsea beat Nottingham Forest? Oct 07 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Newcastle beat Everton? Oct 06 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Liverpool beat Crystal Palace? Oct 05 $285 +$160 +56%
Will Binance or Bybit list $MOODENG by Friday? Oct 05 $394 −$107 -27%
Will the match between Porto and Manchester United end in a Draw? Oct 04 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the match between Twente and Fenerbahce end in a Draw? Oct 04 $76 −$76 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $46 50m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $46 50m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $978 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $230 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $37 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND BUY 23¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 7d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $46 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $217 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $125 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,098.64 · official $1,098.64 (match) · 506 history records