Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae7c…487e
world · 363 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
−$101,160 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$33,436 · open −$57,983
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$60,377
Realized−$33,436
Unrealized−$57,983
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses157 / 307
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions54
Markets (closed)464 / 363
Avg bet$1,449
Trades / day50.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 54 History 464 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35,004
7 days−$34,982
14 days−$65,010
30 days−$75,940
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $29,016 $20,478 −$8,539 (-29%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $26,009 $13,086 −$12,923 (-50%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 53¢ 22¢ $15,781 $6,750 −$9,031 (-57%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $14,051 $2,875 −$11,176 (-80%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 25¢ 52¢ $1,385 $2,835 +$1,451 (+105%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $3,056 $2,522 −$534 (-17%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $3,596 $2,463 −$1,133 (-31%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $1,756 $2,025 +$269 (+15%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 45¢ 92¢ $640 $1,315 +$675 (+105%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 14¢ 3¢ $5,610 $1,232 −$4,378 (-78%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $1,483 $810 −$673 (-45%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 50¢ 3¢ $10,689 $743 −$9,946 (-93%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 23¢ 100¢ $134 $578 +$444 (+333%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 29¢ 10¢ $1,416 $512 −$904 (-64%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $638 $489 −$148 (-23%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $362 $317 −$45 (-12%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $100 $177 +$77 (+77%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 48¢ 82¢ $85 $147 +$62 (+73%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 96¢ 81¢ $148 $124 −$24 (-16%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $20 $116 +$96 (+480%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $574 $112 −$462 (-80%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 16¢ $248 $107 −$141 (-57%)
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes 91¢ 55¢ $129 $78 −$51 (-39%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 8¢ 1¢ $461 $75 −$386 (-84%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Yes 64¢ 16¢ $286 $69 −$217 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 24 to Mar Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? Jun 12 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? Jun 12 $601 −$601 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Jun 12 $343 −$343 -100%
US strike on Colombia by March 31? Jun 12 $173 −$216 -125%
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17 Jun 12 $240 −$243 -101%
Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first episode of Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 24 to Mar Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 17? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? Jun 12 $153 −$141 -92%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Jun 12 $1,293 −$1,296 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 31 to Apr Jun 12 $307 −$307 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 12 $420 −$352 -84%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 24 to March Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17 Jun 12 $446 −$466 -104%
Trump announces new drug boat strike by March 7, 2026? Jun 12 $2,802 −$6,592 -235%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 20 to Mar Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 14, 2026? Jun 12 $312 −$729 -234%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 25? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 27 to Apr Jun 12 $107 −$107 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b Jun 12 $991 −$987 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar Jun 12 $81 −$76 -94%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will White House post 200+ posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $209 −$209 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 20 to Mar Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? Jun 12 $665 −$665 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 31 to Apr Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 17? Jun 12 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar Jun 12 $87 −$78 -90%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the N Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Will NCAA March Madness Live be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store Jun 12 $478 −$656 -137%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Jun 12 $493 −$3,911 -793%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 65% −$64,150
politics 23% +$10,290
tech 6% +$937
other 5% +$1,203
finance 0% +$746
sports 0% +$102
culture 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2,044 4h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $171 4h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $54 4h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $148 32h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $99 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $132 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $176 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $231 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $840 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $209 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $108 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $66 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $113 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $273 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -59.7% -63.5% 5% 5% -80.1%
≤30d 237 -34.2% -40.5% 20% 11% -70.9%
≤90d 464 -15.0% -23.1% 34% 17% -11.9%
all 464 -15.0% -23.1% 34% 17% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 17% -11.9%
10% -30.5% 14% -20.4%
15% ← realistic here -37.2% 13% -28.1%
20% -43.4% 11% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60,377.29 · official $60,381.31 (match) · 3500 history records