Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:05:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae7c…ea48 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$166 (-29%) realized −$164 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$140
sports 47% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -33.7% -40.0% 8% 8% -51.2%
≤30d 12 -33.7% -40.0% 8% 8% -51.2%
≤90d 12 -33.7% -40.0% 8% 8% -51.2%
all 12 -33.7% -40.0% 8% 8% -51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 8% -51.2%
10% -45.8% 8% -55.9%
15% -51.0% 8% -60.2%
20% -55.8% 8% -64.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$15 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $247 $245 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $98 −$95 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $40 −$29 -74%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -14%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 +$29 +71%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -16%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$5 -17%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $18 −$17 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$2 -9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $251 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $98 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $29 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL 96¢ $69 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $41 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 42h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 42h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 7¢ $26 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 42h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 42h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 42h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 21¢ $18 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $20 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $19 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.93 · official $244.93 (match) · 23 history records