Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AE 0xae78…acaf sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$400 (+8%) realized +$472 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$828now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$832
7 days+$729
14 days+$630
30 days+$630
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$21
other 23% −$271
world 15% +$851
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +21.2% +9.6% 50% 44% +9.8%
≤30d 40 +11.2% +0.6% 48% 42% +4.9%
≤90d 40 +11.2% +0.6% 48% 42% +4.9%
all 40 +11.2% +0.6% 48% 42% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 42% +4.9%
10% -9.0% 42% -5.2%
15% -17.8% 40% -14.3%
20% -25.8% 32% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$81 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$828
Realized+$472
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions9
Markets (closed)40 / 49
History coverage8d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 47¢ 62¢ $200 $262 +$62 (+31%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 78¢ $200 $262 +$62 (+31%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 34¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 58¢ 59¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 36¢ 34¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 11¢ 10¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $100 $3 −$97 (-97%)
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $204 +$115 +56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $308 +$14 +5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $103 −$66 -64%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Jun 19 $105 −$98 -94%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $105 −$92 -88%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $204 −$145 -71%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $51 +$53 +103%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$31 +61%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $102 +$88 +86%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $102 +$70 +69%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $103 +$130 +126%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$27 +53%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $102 +$41 +40%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $101 +$271 +269%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$23 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $101 +$33 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $101 +$99 +98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $101 +$587 +581%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $50 −$32 -64%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$64 -62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$61 -59%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $50 −$33 -65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $101 −$99 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$41 +81%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $103 +$485 +468%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$10 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $51 +$21 +42%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $205 +$180 +88%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $102 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $102 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $319 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $157 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $103 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $102 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $102 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 20¢ $36 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 53¢ $102 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 69¢ $286 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 42¢ $103 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $102 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 13¢ $37 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $103 8h
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world SELL Yes 1¢ $7 13h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY Yes 18¢ $105 13h
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY Yes 20¢ $105 13h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 18¢ $105 13h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 3¢ $13 13h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 20¢ $105 13h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 20¢ $59 20h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 65¢ $102 23h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 65¢ $102 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $51 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $82 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 60¢ $51 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 57¢ $51 34h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ $51 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $827.69 · official $827.71 (match) · 111 history records