Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae77…829c world 87 markets active 3h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate39%33W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$31
other 30% −$82
politics 17% +$12
sports 4% +$1
crypto 3% −$1
finance 3% +$1
weather 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -48.2% -53.2% 50% 0% -55.2%
≤90d 78 -3.4% -12.6% 38% 6% -10.0%
all 84 -2.8% -12.1% 39% 8% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 8% -10.0%
10% -20.5% 5% -18.6%
15% -28.2% 2% -26.5%
20% -35.2% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses33 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)84 / 87
History coverage95d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 6¢ 17¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+208%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 23? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? Jun 04 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film May 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? May 20 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $37 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 15? May 15 $110 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 15? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 13 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? May 12 $40 +$1 +2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 12 $8 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $15 $0 -1%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 11 $804 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $135 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 08 $139 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 08 $152 +$2 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 07 $6 −$3 -56%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $30 +$42 +138%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 05 $112 $0 -0%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $117 −$1 -1%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 30 $229 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 29 $2 $0 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 27 $81 $0 +0%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 27 $2 $0 -7%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30? Apr 26 $1 $0 -9%
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 26 $94 $0 +0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 25 $115 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $115 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr 24 $127 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 24 $3 $0 -8%
Will France strike Iran by April 30? Apr 24 $115 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? Apr 23 $115 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 22 $97 $0 -0%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 22 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $112 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $111 −$5 -4%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 21 $120 $0 +0%
Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30? Apr 20 $2 $0 -8%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 17 $107 +$1 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $119 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 15 $131 $0 -0%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Apr 14 $32 $0 -1%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 14 $138 +$5 +4%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $262 −$4 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 11 $119 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $51 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 5h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 14d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? BUY No 98¢ $27 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? BUY No 95¢ $10 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? BUY No 95¢ $20 20d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY No 4¢ $0 27d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY No 4¢ $2 27d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $59 27d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY No 3¢ $1 27d
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film BUY No 94¢ $47 32d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY Yes 95¢ $47 33d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY No 5¢ $1 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY No 5¢ $1 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY No 5¢ $3 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY No 5¢ $0 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY Yes 96¢ $32 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 34d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 15? BUY No 97¢ $55 39d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 15? BUY No 97¢ $55 39d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 39d
Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 96¢ $37 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 1¢ $3 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 1¢ $3 40d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 40d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 40d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 40d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 40d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.28 · official $60.28 (match) · 388 history records