Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae76…2763 sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$309 (+3%) realized +$309 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%23W / 41L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$150est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$2,606
other 25% −$1,760
crypto 20% −$928
world 5% −$278
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +3.1% -6.7% 36% 34% -12.2%
≤30d 64 +3.1% -6.7% 36% 34% -12.2%
≤90d 64 +3.1% -6.7% 36% 34% -12.2%
all 64 +3.1% -6.7% 36% 34% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 34% -12.2%
10% -15.6% 33% -20.6%
15% -23.8% 31% -28.3%
20% -31.3% 31% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$295 vs −$175 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$309
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses23 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$150
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage6d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $154 −$148 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $206 +$164 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $111 +$110 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$70 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$84 +162%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 17 $310 −$310 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $564 −$278 -49%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 17 $333 −$333 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $103 +$22 +21%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $702 −$702 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $177 +$736 +415%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $509 +$806 +158%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $509 +$773 +152%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $202 −$3 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $198 +$113 +57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 +$116 +378%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $307 +$805 +262%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $143 +$82 +57%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $122 −$122 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $237 −$237 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $164 −$164 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $154 −$154 -100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $110 +$463 +421%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $102 +$242 +237%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $144 −$144 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $993 −$993 -100%
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Jun 14 $112 −$3 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $290 +$165 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 +$3 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $102 +$296 +289%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $102 +$221 +216%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $654 +$1,047 +160%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $204 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $50 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 4¢ $55 3h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $103 3h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $153 3h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 19¢ $177 7h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $509 29h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $509 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $264 30h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $46 31h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 11¢ $154 31h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $199 31h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $287 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $286 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $397 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $53.00 · 163 history records