Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:50:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae75…e41c sports 785 markets active 9h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$783 (-5%) realized −$788 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%377W / 405L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$168
14 days−$78
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$575
sports 32% −$175
crypto 6% −$162
world 1% −$21
politics 1% −$5
weather 1% −$2
tech 0% +$3
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -11.8% -20.2% 43% 34% -16.4%
≤30d 335 +1.4% -8.3% 52% 43% -10.5%
≤90d 621 -12.3% -20.7% 45% 37% -22.5%
all 782 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 40% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 40% -14.6%
10% -23.6% 33% -22.8%
15% -31.0% 24% -30.2%
20% -37.7% 18% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$788
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses377 / 405
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions3
Markets (closed)782 / 785
History coverage211d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 782 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+32%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $13 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $13 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 +$5 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 +$13 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $89 +$5 +6%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $30 +$29 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $163 −$74 -45%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $67 −$5 -7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $20 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $7 +$6 +80%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $15 +$7 +49%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $25 +$21 +82%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$2 -4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$1 -18%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$3 +13%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$6 -57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$2 -32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21 −$3 -12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $69 +$12 +17%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $28 −$5 -20%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $25 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +41%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$1 -13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $39 +$5 +14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $76 −$29 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Jun 12 $5 −$1 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 8h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 50¢ $13 11h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 49¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 50¢ $13 15h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 66¢ $30 17h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 54¢ $5 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $35 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $29 30h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 30h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 85¢ $12 36h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 79¢ $32 36h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 44¢ $23 36h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 54¢ $28 37h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 56¢ $28 37h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 57¢ $61 37h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $60 37h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $30 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $21 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $21 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $42 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $16 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 42¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 57¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.96 · official $39.96 (match) · 2000 history records