Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae70…abfb
crypto · 178 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,407 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,447 · open −$2,266
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,030
Realized−$1,447
Unrealized−$2,266
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses89 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)166 / 178
History coverage192d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 12 History 166 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$158
30 days+$423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $2,650 $1,468 −$1,182 (-45%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 36¢ 28¢ $1,638 $1,290 −$348 (-21%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $256 $121 −$135 (-53%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 55¢ 9¢ $495 $81 −$414 (-84%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 24¢ 22¢ $38 $34 −$4 (-11%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $19 $12 −$7 (-38%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 44¢ 4¢ $131 $11 −$120 (-92%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 40¢ 42¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? No 5¢ 1¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-78%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Yes 55¢ 1¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-99%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? No 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? No 20¢ 0¢ $236 $0 −$236 (-100%)
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30? No 3¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $188 $0 −$188 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? No 29¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $1,068 $0 −$1,068 (-100%)
Will Trump visit China by June 30? No 2¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $515 $0 −$515 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 30 $350 +$140 +40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $31 +$18 +59%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $237 −$236 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 23 $122 +$61 +50%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 21 $5 −$3 -56%
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? May 20 $82 −$81 -99%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 20 $365 +$727 +199%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? May 18 $50 +$45 +89%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June May 18 $20 −$1 -5%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? May 14 $301 −$222 -74%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 13 $226 −$4 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 12 $245 −$21 -9%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5? May 12 $20 −$14 -70%
Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31? May 12 $189 −$188 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 12 $1,811 +$1,303 +72%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 12 $451 −$378 -84%
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31? May 11 $1,083 −$1,068 -99%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? May 11 $529 −$515 -97%
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31? May 06 $21 +$9 +44%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? May 04 $57 $0 -1%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? May 03 $161 +$137 +85%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 03 $136 −$90 -66%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 02 $47 −$11 -23%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 18 million barrels per day in May 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 19 million barrels per day in May 01 $12 +$10 +82%
OPEC dissolves in 2026? May 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 01 $203 +$11 +6%
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? May 01 $13 +$2 +14%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? May 01 $12 $0 -3%
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30? Apr 29 $42 −$40 -95%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $245 +$440 +180%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 27 $319 +$23 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $808 +$700 +87%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $351 +$168 +48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $210 +$134 +64%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Apr 24 $160 +$16 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $507 +$105 +21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Apr 24 $42 +$6 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $219 +$242 +110%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 22 $43 +$16 +38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 22 $271 +$202 +74%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $72 +$222 +308%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $170 +$24 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $72 +$10 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $143 +$16 +11%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? Apr 21 $9 −$3 -40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $64 +$44 +68%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Apr 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 55% +$3,461
crypto 26% −$4,729
other 8% −$957
finance 6% −$614
politics 5% −$843
sports 0% −$19
culture 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 26m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 5¢ $11 51m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 5¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 5¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $37 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $8 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 5¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 5¢ $2 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 5¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $46 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $37 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $120 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $121 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $38 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL No 2¢ $37 9h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 5d
Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 29¢ $3 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 29¢ $487 12d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $490 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 20¢ $1 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 20¢ $29 13d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -8.1% -16.8% 42% 42% +14.6%
≤90d 59 -1.7% -11.1% 49% 42% -29.6%
all 166 -4.0% -13.2% 54% 42% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 42% -12.1%
10% -21.5% 28% -20.5%
15% -29.1% 24% -28.2%
20% -36.0% 18% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,029.65 · official $3,030.11 (match) · 1297 history records