Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xae6f…2a6e crypto 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate82%69W / 15L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$575per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$68
14 days−$68
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$33
politics 17% +$1
other 12% −$65
crypto 10% −$5
economics 9% −$4
tech 0% $0
world 0% +$6
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.7% -11.1% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 85% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 39 +0.1% -9.5% 90% 0% -9.9%
all 84 -2.9% -12.1% 82% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 1% -9.7%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses69 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)84 / 100
History coverage158d
Avg bet$575
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Human moon landing in 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $4,990 −$5 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,839 −$63 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1480-1519 tweets in May 2026? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 31? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 15? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $4,920 −$5 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 4? Apr 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 1? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 1? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on March 29? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $4,931 −$5 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 22? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 21? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22? Mar 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Osasuna win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 21 $4,970 −$5 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 21 $4,913 −$5 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 21 $5,007 −$5 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $4,944 −$5 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 8? Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 10? Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 8? Mar 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 9? Mar 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 10? Mar 21 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $570 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $602 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1,206 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,237 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $12 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $11 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 4h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 15d
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL No 100¢ $14 15d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $14 15d
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 18d
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 100¢ $15 18d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? BUY No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $15 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $26 29d
Will Elon Musk post 1480-1519 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 37d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 37d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.48 · official $101.49 (match) · 230 history records