Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae68…de08 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$180 (-13%) realized −$144 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$67
sports 15% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +13.5% +2.7% 58% 50% -16.3%
≤30d 12 +13.5% +2.7% 58% 50% -16.3%
≤90d 12 +13.5% +2.7% 58% 50% -16.3%
all 12 +13.5% +2.7% 58% 50% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 50% -16.3%
10% -7.1% 33% -24.3%
15% -16.1% 33% -31.7%
20% -24.3% 17% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$89 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$144
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$80 +40%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $51 +$7 +14%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $51 +$5 +10%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $58 −$56 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 +$88 +427%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 +$34 +110%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $295 +$39 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $200 +$95 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $282 2m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 13¢ $59 38m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 17¢ $56 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $58 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $82 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $203 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 49¢ $108 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 33¢ $65 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $334 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 88¢ $295 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $200 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.29 · official $19.64 · 20 history records