Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae67…9933 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$40 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$207
other 22% +$77
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +33.3% +20.6% 50% 39% -19.6%
≤30d 28 +33.3% +20.6% 50% 39% -19.6%
≤90d 28 +33.3% +20.6% 50% 39% -19.6%
all 28 +33.3% +20.6% 50% 39% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.6% 39% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here +9.1% 29% -27.3%
15% -1.4% 25% -34.3%
20% -11.1% 14% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +98% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$29 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage2d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $129 −$66 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$10 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$21 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $130 +$28 +21%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$33 +321%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$38 +370%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$8 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $63 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $16 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $122 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $92 13h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 49¢ $48 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 37h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $37 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 62 history records