Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae60…06de other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$95 (-8%) realized −$93 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate88%14W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$119
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$98
other 32% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +11.9% +1.2% 75% 50% +4.0%
≤90d 9 -5.6% -14.6% 78% 22% -21.8%
all 16 -2.7% -12.0% 88% 12% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 12% -19.6%
10% -20.4% 12% -27.3%
15% -28.1% 12% -34.3%
20% -35.1% 12% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$164 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage178d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $255 $253 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $143 +$119 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $158 −$156 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 01 $171 +$110 +65%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 mee May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in March 2026? May 07 $22 $0 +2%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 15 $173 −$171 -98%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ilhan Omar's husband be charged with fraud? Feb 05 $17 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 05 $17 +$1 +3%
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by January 31? Feb 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? Feb 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Feb 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31? Jan 10 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.37 · official $253.37 (match) · 31 history records