Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae60…9c28
weather · 273 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$230 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$225 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$139
Realized−$225
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses86 / 146
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions41
Markets (closed)232 / 273
History coverage20d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day75.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 41 History 232 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days−$247
14 days−$67
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+32%)
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? No 46¢ 72¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? Yes 38¢ 64¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+67%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 68¢ 97¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+43%)
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Under 85¢ 85¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? No 87¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 71¢ 72¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 42¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+47%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 69¢ 88¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 40¢ 80¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+99%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 58¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 49¢ 90¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -20%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +168%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +5%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +72%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$6 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +78%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $7 +$5 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $31 +$47 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $34 +$38 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +39%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$11 -73%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 −$18 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $7 +$4 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $69 −$66 -95%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $6 +$2 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 84% −$84
other 9% −$100
crypto 2% −$37
sports 2% −$12
world 1% +$13
tech 1% −$6
politics 0% −$4
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $2 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $2 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 75¢ $2 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 82¢ $5 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 5h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 66¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 87¢ $5 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -21.3% -28.8% 36% 23% -18.7%
≤30d 232 -21.9% -29.3% 37% 23% -12.5%
≤90d 232 -21.9% -29.3% 37% 23% -12.5%
all 232 -21.9% -29.3% 37% 23% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover75.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.3% 23% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -36.1% 17% -20.9%
15% -42.3% 12% -28.5%
20% -47.9% 11% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.58 · official $135.73 · 1629 history records