Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae5f…bc30 crypto 626 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$606 (+19%) realized +$596 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate23%139W / 473L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day73.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$26
14 days−$119
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$279
weather 20% −$104
politics 5% −$3
world 1% −$4
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -20.1% -27.7% 15% 12% -3.0%
≤30d 257 -14.5% -22.6% 17% 14% -9.6%
≤90d 612 -1.2% -10.6% 23% 18% -5.5%
all 612 -1.2% -10.6% 23% 18% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 18% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 17% -14.5%
15% -26.9% 16% -22.8%
20% -34.1% 14% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$4 · ×3.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$596
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses139 / 473
Open positions14
Markets (closed)612 / 626
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day73.5
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 612 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 50¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+727%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Yes 20¢ 100¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+400%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? Yes 13¢ 40¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+204%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? No 3¢ 8¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+174%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 16? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$24 +227%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$30 +947%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$24 +1053%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$10 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$26 +253%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$7 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$2 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$3 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 51m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 52m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 95¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? BUY No 5¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 1¢ $0 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 1¢ $0 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 1¢ $0 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.94 · official $27.87 (match) · 3500 history records