Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae5b…ab1b weather 1090 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,613 (-1%) realized −$1,611 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1068W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day51.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$273
14 days−$200
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$214
other 1% −$375
tech 0% +$8
crypto 0% +$32
world 0% +$1
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 -0.8% -10.2% 98% 1% -10.2%
≤30d 700 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 1% -9.7%
≤90d 1074 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.6%
all 1074 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$123 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$1,686
Realized−$1,611
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1068 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1074 / 1090
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$140
Trades / day51.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1074 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $299 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $299 $300 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $299 $300 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $299 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $299 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $17 $14 −$4 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$3 (+57%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $277 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $298 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 17 $296 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $65 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $164 −$164 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $81 +$123 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $563 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $124 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $299 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $72 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $283 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $199 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $173 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $93 14h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $152 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $148 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $55 14h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $42 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $6 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,686.25 · official $1,685.95 (match) · 3500 history records