Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AE 0xae5a…3c0c sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$37 (+4%) realized +$64 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$337
other 28% −$170
world 7% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +26.9% +14.8% 50% 50% +21.2%
≤30d 8 +26.9% +14.8% 50% 50% +21.2%
≤90d 8 +26.9% +14.8% 50% 50% +21.2%
all 8 +26.9% +14.8% 50% 50% +21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.8% 50% +21.2%
10% +3.8% 50% +9.6%
15% -6.2% 38% -1.0%
20% -15.4% 38% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$81 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$64
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 38¢ 26¢ $89 $62 −$27 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $172 +$118 +68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $233 −$139 -60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$83 -81%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$164 +321%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $98 +$137 +139%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$31 -60%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $104 +$28 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 38¢ $91 12m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $290 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $172 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 8¢ $19 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $89 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $215 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $51 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $235 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $98 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $72 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 202 BUY 1¢ $19 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand BUY 1¢ $10 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 27¢ $71 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 29¢ $61 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 21¢ $104 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.07 · official $66.75 · 21 history records