Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae58…437e crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate82%33W / 7L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day80.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -4.7% -13.7% 82% 25% -1.4%
≤30d 40 -4.7% -13.7% 82% 25% -1.4%
≤90d 40 -4.7% -13.7% 82% 25% -1.4%
all 40 -4.7% -13.7% 82% 25% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 25% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 10% -10.8%
15% -29.5% 10% -19.5%
20% -36.4% 2% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses33 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day80.0
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $25 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 29 $86 +$40 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $91 −$71 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $312 −$4 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 29 $127 +$28 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 29 $77 +$37 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 29 $90 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$7 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$4 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $4 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $86 +$9 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $60 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $60 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $61 +$27 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $35 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$4 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 16m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $75 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $56 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $34 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $9 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $77 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $18 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $91 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $91 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $100 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $93 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $56 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $92 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $91 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records