Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae58…77cc other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$400 (+27%) realized +$403 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$254
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$395
other 23% −$3
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
politics 1% −$5
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +7.1% -3.1% 67% 33% +24.1%
≤90d 9 +7.2% -3.0% 89% 22% +23.1%
all 15 -2.2% -11.5% 87% 13% +20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 13% +20.5%
10% -20.0% 13% +9.0%
15% -27.7% 13% -1.6%
20% -34.8% 7% -11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$14 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.06 per $1 lost it wins $15.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized+$403
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage169d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $297 $295 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $223 +$254 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $24 −$23 -98%
Suns vs. Thunder May 20 $466 +$34 +7%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 22 $329 +$131 +40%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? Apr 18 $12 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will BNB reach $1200 in January? Feb 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Feb 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 460 Million subscribers by January 31? Jan 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jan 08 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.52 · official $294.52 (match) · 29 history records