Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae57…813f sports 806 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$155 (-1%) realized −$155 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate69%552W / 253L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$154
crypto 14% −$9
other 4% +$6
culture 1% −$2
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +0.5% -9.1% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 86 +0.6% -8.9% 70% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 399 -0.3% -9.8% 68% 2% -10.2%
all 805 -1.3% -10.7% 69% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 5% -10.1%
10% -19.2% 1% -18.7%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses552 / 253
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)805 / 806
History coverage112d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 805 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5) Colombia 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Spread: Panama (-2.5) Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 $0 +3%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $60 −$1 -1%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Iraq (-2.5) Jun 16 $60 $0 -0%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $75 $0 +0%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 98¢ $0 32m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 97¢ $24 32m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 74¢ $10 59m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 99¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 2h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5) BUY Colombia 100¢ $20 2h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) SELL Ghana 100¢ $30 2h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) SELL Ghana 100¢ $30 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 2h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Ghana 100¢ $30 2h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 100¢ $30 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $30 8h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $20 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $30 8h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $22 8h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) SELL Portugal 99¢ $35 9h
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $20 10h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $35 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $11 21h
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $20 21h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) SELL Austria 100¢ $30 21h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Austria 100¢ $30 21h
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) BUY Austria 100¢ $40 21h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) SELL Austria 98¢ $29 21h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Austria 100¢ $30 22h
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $15 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.07 · official $20.07 (match) · 2120 history records