Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae57…0826 other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$13
politics 38% −$12
sports 7% −$6
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 100 +0.8% -8.8% 4% 3% -9.5%
all 121 -2.3% -11.6% 7% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 7% -9.6%
10% -20.1% 4% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×9.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 112
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)121 / 124
History coverage118d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $161 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $210 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $409 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $233 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $218 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $409 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $199 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $189 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $196 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $166 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $185 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $189 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $217 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $171 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $230 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $415 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $176 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $385 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $457 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $202 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $230 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $336 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $221 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $222 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? Apr 22 $187 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $231 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $229 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $225 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $201 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $230 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $448 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $173 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $215 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $221 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 18 $364 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $433 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $166 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $178 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 15d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 16d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $161 17d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $161 27d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $210 27d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 30d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $236 32d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $236 33d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $233 36d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $233 38d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $177 39d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $177 41d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $218 42d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $218 48d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $194 48d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $194 48d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 48d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 49d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $189 49d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $189 49d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $206 49d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $206 50d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $196 50d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $196 50d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $166 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.97 · official $90.97 (match) · 340 history records