Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae54…6bf3 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$82 (+6%) realized +$85 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$158
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$3
sports 38% +$79
tech 6% +$1
economics 3% $0
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -17.7% -25.5% 50% 50% -29.0%
≤90d 7 +7.8% -2.4% 86% 29% +0.6%
all 15 -2.7% -12.0% 87% 13% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 13% -1.8%
10% -20.4% 13% -11.2%
15% -28.1% 13% -19.7%
20% -35.1% 13% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$81 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$396
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage176d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $398 $396 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $160 −$158 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $144 +$93 +65%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 28 $161 +$144 +90%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 27 $201 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 10 $21 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? Mar 10 $21 $0 +1%
Negative GDP growth in 2025? Mar 10 $22 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 03 $18 $0 +2%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $20 end of January? Feb 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of January Feb 03 $25 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $375 before 2026?? Jan 07 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.55 · official $395.55 (match) · 29 history records