Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae53…d80b sports 503 markets active 1h ago coverage 579d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,252 (+7%) realized +$5,252 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%265W / 238L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$283
7 days−$230
14 days+$132
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$5,847
other 5% −$1,219
world 1% +$774
crypto 0% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -27.2% -34.1% 40% 38% -15.8%
≤30d 52 -11.1% -19.6% 46% 44% -8.1%
≤90d 58 -10.8% -19.3% 47% 45% +1.7%
all 503 +2.6% -7.2% 53% 51% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 51% -2.9%
10% -16.0% 48% -12.2%
15% -24.2% 45% -20.7%
20% -31.6% 42% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$127 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

579d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses265 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)503 / 503
History coverage579d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 503 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $118 +$53 +45%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $61 +$39 +63%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $162 +$38 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $129 −$128 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $131 −$130 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $47 −$46 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $149 +$51 +34%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $57 +$69 +121%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $71 +$29 +42%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $120 +$80 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $135 +$65 +48%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $74 −$72 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $141 +$59 +42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 +$143 +250%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $123 +$77 +62%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $89 +$111 +125%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $53 −$52 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $81 −$55 -67%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $93 +$107 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $82 −$81 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $65 +$55 +85%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $141 +$59 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $151 −$4 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $87 +$113 +131%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $130 +$248 +191%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $114 −$114 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $140 −$140 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 26 $145 −$145 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 25 $50 +$50 +100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 24 $52 +$48 +92%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 23 $50 +$50 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 95¢ $151 53m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 69¢ $111 54m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes $2 3h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes $0 3h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes $0 3h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes $0 3h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes $0 3h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes $7 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $61 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $55 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $57 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $18 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $11 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $129 15h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $131 15h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes $14 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $47 15h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1 15h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $80 15h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $81 15h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 15h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 15h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $127 28h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 74¢ $149 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1971 history records