Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae51…0d08 sports 491 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,675 (+8%) realized +$7,523 · open +$152
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%196W / 290L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$1,866est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,513
7 days−$1,709
14 days−$2,095
30 days−$2,566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$3,774
crypto 4% −$932
other 1% +$1,275
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -6.0% -14.9% 35% 35% -22.0%
≤30d 171 -12.2% -20.5% 32% 32% -15.7%
≤90d 485 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 40% -5.9%
all 486 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 40% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 40% -5.9%
10% -17.5% 40% -14.9%
15% -25.5% 38% -23.1%
20% -32.8% 38% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$285 vs −$179 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$684
Realized+$7,523
Unrealized+$152
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses196 / 290
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,866
Open positions5
Markets (closed)486 / 491
History coverage128d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 486 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Atlanta Braves 22¢ 48¢ $100 $218 +$118 (+118%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $212 +$112 (+112%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Miami Marlins 37¢ 37¢ $124 $124 +$0 (+0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 54¢ 55¢ $113 $114 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $95 $15 −$80 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $342 −$239 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$131 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$125 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$70 -94%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 17 $211 −$206 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $174 −$171 -98%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 17 $312 −$312 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $132 +$385 +291%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $224 +$404 +180%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $72 −$10 -14%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $152 −$148 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 16 $409 −$400 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $103 −$101 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $239 −$234 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $100 −$97 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $212 +$108 +51%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $608 −$598 -98%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $256 +$762 +298%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $109 −$106 -97%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $102 +$120 +118%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $102 +$152 +149%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 15 $494 −$278 -56%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $102 +$251 +246%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $296 −$295 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Bos Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 +$140 +137%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 14 $73 +$222 +303%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 14 $102 +$226 +221%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 14 $288 −$12 -4%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $189 −$185 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 14 $185 +$394 +213%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 14 $379 −$370 -98%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 14 $230 +$349 +152%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 14 $505 −$304 -60%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 14 $629 +$878 +140%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $185 +$150 +81%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $130 +$195 +150%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 13 $112 +$156 +139%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $226 −$221 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 13 $228 −$228 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $114 32m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 37¢ $127 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $64 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $89 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $41 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $235 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 21¢ $211 1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 26¢ $174 3h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 30¢ $112 4h
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Houston Astros 95¢ $312 5h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 20¢ $205 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $517 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $132 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 35¢ $224 9h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $61 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $683.80 · official $683.80 (match) · 1121 history records