Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:34:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xae50…b6fe crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate66%29W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$39
14 days−$32
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$32
crypto 33% −$64
tech 18% −$5
sports 7% +$89
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 44% -3.2%
≤30d 44 +3.4% -6.5% 66% 52% -10.2%
≤90d 44 +3.4% -6.5% 66% 52% -10.2%
all 44 +3.4% -6.5% 66% 52% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 52% -10.2%
10% -15.4% 43% -18.8%
15% -23.6% 36% -26.7%
20% -31.1% 16% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$24 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses29 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage20d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 18 $167 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +37%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 Jun 18 $10 −$1 -14%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $86 +$2 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 +$26 +129%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$9 -46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$18 +44%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 11 $25 −$7 -28%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $103 −$71 -69%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $96 +$17 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? Jun 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 02 $25 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 01 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 01 $8 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 31 $5 $0 +4%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $56 +$48 +86%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $50 +$9 +19%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? May 30 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 29 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 29 $15 +$11 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 29 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 29 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 29 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 29 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 29 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 29 $146 −$140 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 29 $87 +$55 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 29 $71 +$25 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 29 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 29 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 29 $46 +$15 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $123 1h
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con SELL Yes 86¢ $117 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 SELL 28¢ $9 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 BUY 31¢ $10 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 8h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $32 8h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $15 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 55¢ $25 25h
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con SELL Yes 86¢ $50 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 55¢ $3 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 25h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $17 25h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $5 25h
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con BUY Yes 89¢ $30 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 43¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.25 · official $152.25 (match) · 127 history records