trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 26 | +11.3% | +0.7% | 35% | 35% | -48.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +0.7% | 35% | -48.9% |
| 10% | -9.0% | 35% | -53.8% |
| 15% | -17.7% | 35% | -58.2% |
| 20% | -25.8% | 31% | -62.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? | Yes | 19¢ | 6¢ | $345 | $120 | −$225 (-65%) |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 10¢ | $30 | $21 | −$9 (-30%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close over $19,000 on the final trading day of D | Mar 11 | $111 | −$111 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of February? | Feb 28 | $3 | +$14 | +465% |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Feb 28 | $15 | +$13 | +89% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $3 | +$8 | +257% |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | Feb 06 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Feb 06 | $15 | −$1 | -10% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 30 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | Jan 30 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Jan 15 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the US strike another country first? | Jan 15 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025? | Nov 12 | $5 | +$6 | +128% |
| Trump approval >45% on July 1? | Jul 02 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking? | Jul 02 | $5 | +$10 | +203% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? | Jul 01 | $15 | +$7 | +47% |
| Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | Jun 26 | $32 | −$32 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | Jun 26 | $10 | −$2 | -24% |
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | Jun 26 | $5 | −$1 | -20% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 26 | $3 | +$2 | +54% |
| China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? | Jun 26 | $15 | −$3 | -22% |
| China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? | Jun 26 | $8 | −$4 | -49% |
| Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday? | Jun 23 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday? | Jun 23 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Israel military action against Iraq by Friday? | Jun 14 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Israel military action against Iran before July? | Jun 13 | $3 | +$9 | +300% |
| Israel military action against Iran before 2026? | Jun 13 | $10 | +$8 | +75% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? | Jun 03 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |