Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae4c…7497 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$3
other 15% +$1
politics 13% +$1
crypto 4% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.2% -8.4% 43% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 7 +1.2% -8.4% 43% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 7 +1.2% -8.4% 43% 0% -8.7%
all 33 -2.6% -11.8% 52% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -8.9%
10% -20.3% 0% -17.6%
15% -28.0% 0% -25.5%
20% -35.0% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage445d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $45 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Epstein" by Monday? Jun 10 $2 $0 -17%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $11 +$1 +7%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will "English" win the Tony for Best Play 2025? Jun 07 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $ Jun 06 $12 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $12 +$1 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Ru Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 17 $11 $0 +2%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 02 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 28? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Mar 28 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $54 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 11h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 11h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $34 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $13 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $45 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $2 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $2 27h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 30h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $51 31h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 37h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 37h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $7 40h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $15 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $6 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $20 47h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $11 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $36 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $34 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $51 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.90 · official $53.90 (match) · 111 history records