Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae4b…fd5b crypto 996 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%952W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$10
14 days−$33
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$4
sports 5% −$5
world 0% −$1
other 0% −$4
finance 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 525 -0.7% -10.2% 96% 1% -9.8%
≤90d 988 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 2% -9.5%
all 993 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses952 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)993 / 996
History coverage97d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 993 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 92¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? No 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
First Blood in Game 2? REKONIX 100¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Khamzat Chimaev 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 12AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jannik Sinner 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Yes 100¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Pittsburgh Pirates 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $170 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: EDward Gaming vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN League S Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs Outlast (BO1) - North Americ Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $120 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $25 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 13h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 98¢ $5 14h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 15h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 99¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 17h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 17h
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? SELL No 96¢ $5 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 18h
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? BUY No 99¢ $5 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 20h
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Scotland 98¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 99¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 32h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 100¢ $30 32h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 100¢ $20 32h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 32h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.91 · official $20.91 (match) · 2265 history records