Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:37:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae46…7889 crypto 577 markets active 3h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,861 (-4%) realized −$7,373 · open +$512
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%229W / 334L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$6,769now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$151
14 days+$968
30 days+$3,243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$5,483
other 6% +$1,755
world 5% −$465
sports 4% −$1,335
finance 2% −$2,817
culture 0% +$301
weather 0% +$81
politics 0% −$22
economics 0% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +144.7% +121.4% 100% 100% +121.4%
≤30d 13 +176.4% +150.1% 69% 69% +132.6%
≤90d 475 -5.9% -14.9% 44% 43% -11.6%
all 563 -7.8% -16.6% 41% 40% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 40% -13.4%
10% -24.6% 40% -21.7%
15% -31.9% 39% -29.2%
20% -38.6% 37% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$356 vs −$270 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$6,769
Realized−$7,373
Unrealized+$512
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses229 / 334
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions14
Markets (closed)563 / 577
History coverage107d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 563 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $1,370 $1,880 +$510 (+37%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1,462 $1,556 +$94 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1,680 $1,385 −$295 (-18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $500 $828 +$328 (+66%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $300 $260 −$40 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $325 $253 −$72 (-22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $250 $244 −$6 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $172 −$28 (-14%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $15 $74 +$59 (+390%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $55 $59 +$4 (+8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $2 −$12 (-83%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 318 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $104 +$151 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$121 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 08 $104 +$140 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 07 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 07 $53 +$160 +304%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 07 $50 +$355 +711%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 02 $205 +$117 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 01 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 01 $357 +$599 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 01 $441 −$425 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 01 $209 −$165 -79%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $350 +$2,374 +678%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 28 $707 −$707 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 27 $2,235 −$2,235 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 24 $140 −$135 -96%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $104 −$5 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Apr 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $1,900 −$871 -46%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 17 $492 −$476 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 17 $125 −$121 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 17 $150 −$145 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 17 $210 +$369 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 17 $138 +$260 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 17 $350 −$338 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 17 $50 +$62 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 17 $150 +$134 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 17 $150 +$139 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 17 $200 −$193 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 17 $125 −$119 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 17 $245 −$234 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 17 $150 +$145 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 16 $300 +$278 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 16 $250 −$241 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 16 $700 −$668 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 16 $350 +$350 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 16 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 16 $165 +$200 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 16 $300 −$291 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 16 $250 +$293 +117%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 16 $2,500 −$2,456 -98%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $2,770 +$3,717 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 16 $289 −$279 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 16 $150 +$139 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 16 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 16 $50 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 16 $100 −$96 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $257 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 12d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 81¢ $405 12d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 12d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $257 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 14d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $309 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $192 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,768.53 · official $6,769.49 (match) · 2315 history records