Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae45…3b4d other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$294 (-60%) realized −$294 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 114d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$177
other 48% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -12.0% -20.4% 25% 25% -4.2%
≤30d 4 -12.0% -20.4% 25% 25% -4.2%
≤90d 4 -12.0% -20.4% 25% 25% -4.2%
all 6 -38.9% -44.7% 17% 17% -43.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.7% 17% -43.7%
10% -50.0% 17% -49.1%
15% -54.8% 0% -54.0%
20% -59.2% 0% -58.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$39 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$294
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage114d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $29 −$6 -22%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $29 −$4 -14%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $151 +$34 +22%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $28 −$10 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 07 $176 −$97 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 07 $80 −$79 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $185 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 3d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 3d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 4d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 9d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $18 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records