Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae45…0359 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$76 (-7%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate24%6W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$85
world 36% −$2
other 26% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 25 -11.9% -20.3% 24% 8% -17.7%
all 25 -11.9% -20.3% 24% 8% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 8% -17.7%
10% -27.9% 4% -25.6%
15% -34.9% 0% -32.8%
20% -41.3% 0% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses6 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage53d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $182 −$2 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $270 −$2 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $203 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 01 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 01 $94 −$23 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 01 $11 −$10 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 30 $59 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 30 $23 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 30 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 27 $29 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 27 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 27 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 27 $27 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 27 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 27 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 27 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 27 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 27 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 27 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 27 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 26 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 26 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 25 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 25 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 84¢ $179 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 85¢ $182 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $268 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $270 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $203 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $196 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $31 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $25 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $7 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records