Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:08:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AE 0xae43…5701 politics 254 markets active 2h ago coverage 696d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,770 (-5%) realized −$4,722 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate43%109W / 142L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$54
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$1,106
other 30% −$3,443
crypto 19% +$97
world 10% −$504
sports 5% −$118
economics 1% −$80
tech 0% +$352
finance 0% −$34
weather 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +12.6% +1.9% 56% 54% -11.7%
≤30d 40 +13.4% +2.6% 58% 55% -10.7%
≤90d 40 +13.4% +2.6% 58% 55% -10.7%
all 251 -5.2% -14.3% 43% 31% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 31% -13.7%
10% -22.5% 22% -22.0%
15% -30.0% 18% -29.5%
20% -36.8% 14% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$114 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

696d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$4,722
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses109 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)251 / 254
History coverage696d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $54 $46 −$8 (-15%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Over 26¢ 8¢ $25 $7 −$18 (-71%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 5¢ $25 $3 −$22 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $30 +$25 +83%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $65 +$37 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$28 +180%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 +$20 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 +$18 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +123%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $237 −$96 -40%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $88 +$26 +29%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $164 −$161 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $35 +$28 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $126 −$125 -99%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $40 +$16 +40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $251 +$15 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$136 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$57 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $56 +$61 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $117 −$115 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $71 −$58 -82%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $162 +$112 +69%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $82 +$161 +197%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$8 +29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$6 -31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $56 +$24 +44%
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Sweden Feb 14 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 13 $80 −$79 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 13 $140 −$102 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Feb 13 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 13 $65 +$99 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 13 $90 +$49 +55%
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Denmark Feb 12 $182 +$67 +37%
Men's Group A - Czechia vs. Canada Feb 12 $152 +$31 +20%
Bruins vs. Oilers Dec 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Flyers vs. Canucks Dec 31 $104 −$97 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $18 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $26 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $25 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $37 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $20 4h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 54¢ $30 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $65 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $19 24h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $25 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $32 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 24h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $18 25h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $20 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $15 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 30h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $15 30h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 30h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 30h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $16 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 74¢ $13 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 10¢ $13 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $111 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 79¢ $111 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.99 · official $54.61 · 989 history records