Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae43…f595 crypto 351 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (292 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,688 (+3%) realized +$1,688 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate77%315W / 95L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day291.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (292 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 -37.1% -43.1% 57% 12% -18.4%
≤30d 410 -14.1% -22.3% 77% 13% -11.0%
≤90d 410 -14.1% -22.3% 77% 13% -11.0%
all 410 -14.1% -22.3% 77% 13% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover291.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 13% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 4% -19.5%
15% -36.5% 2% -27.3%
20% -42.7% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$42 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,688
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses315 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)410 / 351
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$163
Trades / day291.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 410 Trades
no open positions (75 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Luna Vujovic vs Marie Mettraux Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Set Handicap: Tirante (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $243 −$243 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Alba Rey Garcia vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Kudrivka win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Cameroon vs Sierra Le Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Eva Lys vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 17 $11 −$10 -93%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-05-27? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
ITF Gaborone: Elena Jamshidi vs Marilouise Van Zyl Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zea Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Vicenza: Stefano Travaglia vs Henri Squire Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $516 −$516 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Nongshim RedForce (BO5) - Esports World Cu Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records