Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AE 0xae41…73cf sports 11 markets active 5h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$348 (+22%) realized +$381 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$320
7 days+$320
14 days+$575
30 days+$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$48
crypto 35% +$199
other 5% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +70.9% +54.6% 100% 100% +50.7%
≤30d 10 +37.0% +23.9% 80% 80% +11.4%
≤90d 10 +37.0% +23.9% 80% 80% +11.4%
all 10 +37.0% +23.9% 80% 80% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.9% 80% +11.4%
10% +12.1% 80% +0.8%
15% +1.2% 80% -9.0%
20% -8.7% 70% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$193 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$381
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage16d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 57¢ 42¢ $120 $87 −$33 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $71 +$50 +70%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $37 +$34 +93%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $93 +$44 +48%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings Jun 28 $182 +$110 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $99 +$82 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $59 +$43 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $245 +$212 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $144 −$139 -97%
Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Muchova Jun 18 $250 +$139 +56%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $249 −$246 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 57¢ $122 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $71 18h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $37 27h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 100¢ $137 28h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 67¢ $93 28h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings SELL Minnesota Lynx 98¢ $292 30h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings BUY Minnesota Lynx 60¢ $182 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $99 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $59 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $245 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $144 11d
Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Muchova SELL Keys 100¢ $389 11d
Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Muchova BUY Keys 64¢ $250 11d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 60¢ $249 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.37 · official $87.37 (match) · 19 history records