Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae3e…8c55 crypto 431 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49 (-7%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%149W / 282L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$18
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -13.3% -21.5% 36% 35% -19.1%
≤30d 411 -19.6% -27.2% 33% 33% -31.2%
≤90d 431 -15.7% -23.7% 35% 34% -17.7%
all 431 -15.7% -23.7% 35% 34% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 34% -17.7%
10% -31.0% 33% -25.6%
15% -37.7% 32% -32.8%
20% -43.8% 29% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses149 / 282
Open positions0
Markets (closed)431 / 431
History coverage60d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 431 Trades
no open positions (207 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$5 +509%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 662 history records