Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:01:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae39…8864
crypto · 1090 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$76 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$182 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses697 / 392
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1089 / 1090
History coverage30d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day79.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1089 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$66
14 days−$146
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 78¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$8 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$10 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 444 -0.7% -10.2% 67% 44% -11.8%
≤30d 1072 +0.1% -9.5% 64% 42% -11.4%
≤90d 1089 -0.1% -9.7% 64% 42% -11.3%
all 1089 -0.1% -9.7% 64% 42% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover79.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 42% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 30% -19.8%
15% -26.2% 21% -27.6%
20% -33.4% 15% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.63 (match) · 3275 history records