Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae37…4888 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (360 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,351 (-9%) realized −$1,351 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 32L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day359.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,516
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (360 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -31.1% -37.6% 38% 38% -26.7%
≤30d 52 -31.1% -37.6% 38% 38% -26.7%
≤90d 52 -31.1% -37.6% 38% 38% -26.7%
all 52 -31.1% -37.6% 38% 38% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover359.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.6% 38% -26.7%
10% ← realistic here -43.6% 37% -33.7%
15% -49.1% 37% -40.1%
20% -54.1% 31% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -23% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$222 vs −$217 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,351
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage2d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day359.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $234 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $232 +$138 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $93 −$15 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $352 −$90 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $216 −$205 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $605 −$413 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $647 −$618 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $601 +$344 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $424 −$424 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $259 +$183 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $443 +$505 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $196 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $154 +$66 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $779 +$695 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $237 +$178 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $346 −$246 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $236 −$230 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $369 −$355 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $152 −$144 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $172 −$163 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $544 −$225 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $161 +$183 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $155 +$87 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $215 +$97 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $319 +$238 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $570 +$554 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $532 −$157 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $347 −$331 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $258 +$194 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $361 +$258 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $246 +$195 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $415 −$50 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $359 −$350 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $142 +$61 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$54 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $388 +$277 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $572 −$566 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 868 history records