Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AE 0xae37…f380 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$92 (+14%) realized +$74 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$72
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$83
crypto 16% −$1
politics 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +19.9% +8.5% 75% 75% +15.4%
≤30d 7 +6.8% -3.3% 71% 71% +11.9%
≤90d 7 +6.8% -3.3% 71% 71% +11.9%
all 7 +6.8% -3.3% 71% 71% +11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 71% +11.9%
10% -12.6% 57% +1.2%
15% -21.0% 29% -8.6%
20% -28.8% 14% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.69 per $1 lost it wins $4.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage10d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-2%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 43¢ 97¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+126%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 50¢ 88¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+77%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$9 -91%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $201 +$26 +13%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$52 +129%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $65 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3d
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 77¢ $10 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 43¢ $10 7d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $10 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 10d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.75 · official $354.75 (match) · 21 history records