Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:28:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae35…5dd3 sports 841 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,933 (-7%) realized −$7,934 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%311W / 529L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$609est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$39
14 days+$197
30 days−$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$8,500
other 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -19.7% -27.4% 41% 40% -8.6%
≤30d 194 -18.3% -26.1% 38% 36% -11.8%
≤90d 469 -19.5% -27.2% 36% 33% -22.8%
all 840 -14.2% -22.3% 37% 34% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 34% -16.4%
10% -29.8% 31% -24.4%
15% -36.6% 28% -31.7%
20% -42.8% 23% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$75 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$7,934
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses311 / 529
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$609
Open positions1
Markets (closed)840 / 841
History coverage156d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 840 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $202 +$84 +42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $212 −$10 -5%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $51 +$42 +82%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $101 +$10 +10%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 19 $288 +$166 +58%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $61 +$31 +51%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $60 +$90 +150%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $223 +$177 +79%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $65 +$44 +68%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $76 −$15 -20%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $46 +$42 +91%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $66 +$81 +124%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$54 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$20 +203%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$44 +216%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $61 −$19 -31%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $102 +$113 +112%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 +$41 +101%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $124 +$21 +17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$15 +15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $98 +$10 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 1h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $40 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 70¢ $202 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 10¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 93¢ $291 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 64¢ $202 15h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 49¢ $93 16h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 88¢ $110 16h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 79¢ $101 16h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $51 18h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 28h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 90¢ $32 30h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 90¢ $58 30h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 59¢ $61 31h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $61 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 40¢ $60 36h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA $5 36h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $400 37h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $62 37h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $223 41h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $454 41h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 35¢ $10 41h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 50¢ $70 42h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 95¢ $108 43h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 56¢ $65 44h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming $1 44h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming $0 44h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 66¢ $9 45h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 66¢ $2 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.79 · official $60.79 (match) · 2638 history records