Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae32…ee8b crypto 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,074 (+43%) realized +$8,234 · open −$160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate59%55W / 39L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,030
7 days+$3,570
14 days+$7,425
30 days+$7,425
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$2,217
sports 24% +$4,177
other 7% +$870
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +2.4% -7.4% 63% 42% +40.4%
≤30d 94 +1.0% -8.6% 59% 48% +28.5%
≤90d 94 +1.0% -8.6% 59% 48% +28.5%
all 94 +1.0% -8.6% 59% 48% +28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 48% +28.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 35% +16.2%
15% -25.4% 33% +4.9%
20% -32.7% 29% -5.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$87 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$8,234
Unrealized−$160
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses55 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage9d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $195 $35 −$160 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 −$194 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,000 +$1,225 +122%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $998 +$1,526 +153%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $195 −$9 -5%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 13 $204 −$20 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $139 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $356 +$26 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $35 +$7 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $68 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $161 +$34 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $71 +$19 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $142 +$4 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $326 +$376 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $146 −$139 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $252 −$155 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $232 +$171 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $289 +$395 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $138 −$132 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $71 −$68 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $103 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $346 +$254 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $189 +$207 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $103 +$55 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $61 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $53 +$54 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$16 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$26 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $203 +$180 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,214 +$1,156 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $224 +$246 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$92 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $110 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $124 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $123 +$47 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $111 −$105 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $105 +$240 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $322 +$440 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $403 −$69 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$15 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $199 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 5¢ $199 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,225 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 44¢ $997 31h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 94¢ $2,305 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 24¢ $100 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 24¢ $84 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 72¢ $220 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 32¢ $204 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $202 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $408 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $186 4d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) SELL Spurs 31¢ $184 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $221 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $141 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $161 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $145 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $139 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $43 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $35 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $34 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $34 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $174 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.67 · official $34.67 (match) · 311 history records