Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae31…7fa1 sports 383 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,800 (-17%) realized −$5,815 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%113W / 256L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$976now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$187
14 days−$648
30 days−$10,089
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$7,993
world 18% +$2,446
politics 13% −$1,332
sports 11% −$382
crypto 8% +$453
economics 4% +$396
tech 3% +$437
finance 1% −$288
culture 0% +$82
weather 0% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -58.6% -62.6% 0% 0% -38.2%
≤30d 119 -45.7% -50.9% 24% 21% -52.8%
≤90d 346 -21.4% -28.9% 32% 29% -26.6%
all 369 -23.8% -31.1% 31% 28% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 28% -26.8%
10% -37.7% 26% -33.8%
15% -43.7% 24% -40.2%
20% -49.2% 22% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$65 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$976
Realized−$5,815
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses113 / 256
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions14
Markets (closed)369 / 383
History coverage93d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 369 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 12¢ $114 $297 +$183 (+161%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $152 $158 +$6 (+4%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 57¢ 81¢ $85 $122 +$37 (+43%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $172 $116 −$55 (-32%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 51¢ 76¢ $59 $88 +$28 (+48%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $68 $55 −$13 (-19%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $43 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $12 $28 +$16 (+131%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 4¢ 2¢ $58 $27 −$31 (-54%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $24 $20 −$3 (-14%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $66 $12 −$53 (-81%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $88 $6 −$82 (-93%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $2 −$14 (-90%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 15 $26 −$24 -95%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $318 −$32 -10%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $56 −$16 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $171 −$94 -55%
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? Jun 10 $91 −$59 -65%
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? Jun 10 $104 −$44 -42%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 10 $28 −$15 -54%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $294 −$294 -100%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $17 +$13 +72%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $411 −$411 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 07 $21 −$1 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 06 $174 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 05 $983 +$566 +58%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 5? Jun 05 $17 −$17 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $26 +$14 +53%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 05 $42 −$6 -13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 05 $32 −$3 -9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 05 $21 −$4 -18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $494 +$2 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $567 +$182 +32%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $317 −$89 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Choi In-ho win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $62 +$45 +72%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 04 $52 −$29 -56%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? Jun 03 $29 +$7 +26%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in June? Jun 03 $86 +$41 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $62 −$11 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $53 −$37 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $356 +$175 +49%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $107 +$38 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 02 $43 −$43 -100%
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 02 $18 −$18 -100%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Jun 01 $3,100 −$3,100 -100%
James Comey arrested by April 30? Jun 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 34m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 34m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 44m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 44m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 45m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 47m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $36 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $25 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $35 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $38 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $233 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 26h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $19 30h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 30h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 30h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 30h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 30h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 30h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 30h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 30h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 30h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 30h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $19 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $976.15 · official $971.76 (match) · 2160 history records