Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
AE 0xae30…e371 other 781 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,927 (+36%) realized +$2,784 · open +$143
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +186% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +138% what you keep after slip
Net edge+138%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate74%520W / 181L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$235
14 days+$833
30 days+$946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1,042
tech 26% +$610
culture 11% +$171
crypto 5% +$616
politics 4% +$181
sports 2% +$55
world 2% +$63
weather 2% −$3
finance 1% +$48
economics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+158.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +22.0% +10.4% 94% 78% +10.4%
≤30d 205 +62.7% +47.2% 88% 73% +17.1%
≤90d 522 +168.5% +142.9% 78% 59% +16.1%
all 701 +185.6% +158.4% 74% 59% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +158.4% 59% +19.3%
10% +133.6% 52% +7.9%
15% +111.1% 43% -2.6%
20% +90.4% 38% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +186% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +221% → late +150% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.26 per $1 lost it wins $12.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$1,152
Realized+$2,784
Unrealized+$143
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses520 / 181
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions79
Markets (closed)701 / 781
History coverage124d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 79 History 701 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 280 to 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? No 77¢ 81¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will 130 to 159 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? No 63¢ 76¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+21%)
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? No 70¢ 95¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+36%)
Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+4%)
Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 80¢ 96¢ $28 $34 +$6 (+20%)
Will 220 to 249 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? No 77¢ 87¢ $29 $33 +$4 (+12%)
Will 250 to 279 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $32 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Will 190 to 219 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? No 66¢ 76¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+14%)
Will 160 to 189 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? No 66¢ 76¢ $26 $31 +$4 (+16%)
Will 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? No 66¢ 69¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Will more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? No 66¢ 74¢ $26 $30 +$3 (+12%)
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 78¢ 91¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+17%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026? No 66¢ 75¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+14%)
Will "CHÉVERE - ARIA VEGA & Ryan Castro" be the song of the summer? No 57¢ 96¢ $15 $26 +$11 (+69%)
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 27? No 77¢ 64¢ $31 $26 −$5 (-16%)
Will "Talk To You - ANOTR & 54 Ultra" be the song of the summer? No 57¢ 98¢ $15 $25 +$11 (+71%)
Will "New Religion - Bebe Rexha & Faithless" be the song of the summer? No 57¢ 96¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+69%)
Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the song of the summer? No 57¢ 96¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+69%)
Will "Midnight Sun - Zara Larsson" be the song of the summer? No 63¢ 96¢ $16 $24 +$8 (+53%)
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 27? No 74¢ 59¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026? No 65¢ 67¢ $23 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Will "Freakin' Out - Dexter and The Moonrocks" be the song of the summer? No 60¢ 96¢ $15 $23 +$9 (+61%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? No 60¢ 85¢ $16 $23 +$7 (+42%)
Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 74¢ 93¢ $18 $22 +$5 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Jun 19 $36 +$7 +18%
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June Jun 19 $15 +$4 +24%
Will AutoSleep: Watch Sleep Tracker be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Jun 19 $22 +$2 +11%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 19 $28 +$7 +25%
Will Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 19 $19 +$4 +23%
Will Anthony Garotinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 18 $19 +$5 +26%
Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +36%
Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 18 $23 +$5 +24%
Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +36%
Will Chico Machado win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +36%
Will Wilson Witzel win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 18 $18 +$7 +36%
Will Amazon have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 17 $13 +$2 +15%
Will Mistral have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 17 $42 +$3 +7%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 17 $13 +$2 +18%
Will KT Challengers Win Asia Masters 2026 Jun 17 $2 +$5 +338%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun Jun 16 $28 +$6 +22%
Will "Ticket To Paradise (2022)" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $24 +$6 +24%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the #2 US Netflix movie this we Jun 16 $24 +$6 +24%
Will "Poor Things" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $27 +$6 +23%
Will "Song Sung Blue" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $27 +$6 +24%
Will "Piece by Piece" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $27 +$6 +24%
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 16 $42 +$8 +18%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +30%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +56%
Will AutoSleep: Watch Sleep Tracker be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Jun 15 $44 +$11 +25%
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June Jun 15 $21 +$10 +49%
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Jun 15 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Google be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the US lose jobs in June? Jun 14 $18 +$4 +22%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 14 $25 +$12 +48%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 14 $28 +$1 +5%
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Bangaranga - DARA" be the song of the summer? Jun 14 $15 +$10 +66%
Will the No. 15 BMW M Team WRT win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 13 $41 +$8 +20%
Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 13 $36 +$4 +11%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 13 $27 +$3 +12%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $37 +$8 +21%
Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 13 $41 +$8 +20%
Will RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +17%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 13 $27 +$6 +22%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 13 $20 +$5 +22%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Jun 13 $27 +$6 +21%
Will ByteDance have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +4%
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 13 $21 +$4 +19%
Will Future perform "Mask Off" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for SELL No 99¢ $39 45m
Will "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album f SELL No 99¢ $42 45m
Will "The Art of Loving - Olivia Dean" be the Billboard 200 #1 album f SELL No 99¢ $42 45m
Will "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album f BUY No 65¢ $36 1h
Will "The Art of Loving - Olivia Dean" be the Billboard 200 #1 album f BUY No 79¢ $44 1h
Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for BUY No 63¢ $42 1h
Will "Be Her - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2h
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard H BUY No 74¢ $30 2h
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for BUY No 77¢ $31 2h
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Will "Habibti - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of J SELL No 99¢ $1 3h
Will "Habibti - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of J BUY No 94¢ $9 3h
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY No 94¢ $5 3h
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY No 95¢ $5 3h
Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $5 3h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? SELL No 100¢ $30 8h
Will Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? SELL No 99¢ $24 20h
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29h
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? SELL No 99¢ $8 29h
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? SELL No 99¢ $5 31h
Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 33h
Will Anthony Garotinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? SELL No 99¢ $10 34h
Will Anthony Garotinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? SELL No 99¢ $14 34h
Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? SELL No 99¢ $20 34h
Will André Português win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34h
Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 36h
Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 36h
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the top global Netflix movie this week? SELL No 99¢ $28 43h
Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? SELL No 99¢ $4 43h
Will Chico Machado win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? SELL No 99¢ $5 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,152.04 · official $1,152.21 (match) · 2333 history records