Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae30…079e sports 876 markets active 1h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$67,014 (-6%) realized −$66,872 · open −$142
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%397W / 477L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,262per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$9,273est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$861
7 days+$4,358
14 days+$7
30 days−$247,251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$76,248
other 4% −$2,770
crypto 0% −$604
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 53% +4.7%
≤30d 304 -53.2% -57.7% 22% 21% -52.9%
≤90d 470 -26.8% -33.8% 36% 35% -35.7%
all 874 -8.1% -16.8% 45% 43% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 43% -15.7%
10% -24.8% 42% -23.8%
15% -32.1% 39% -31.2%
20% -38.7% 35% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$1,521) neutral
Persistence
early +14% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,010 vs −$1,008 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized−$66,872
Unrealized−$142
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses397 / 477
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$9,273
Open positions2
Markets (closed)874 / 876
History coverage217d
Avg bet$1,262
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 874 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Guido Justo 49¢ 36¢ $507 $367 −$140 (-28%)
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Conner Huertas Del Pino 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 194 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $646 +$472 +73%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 19 $695 −$53 -8%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $545 −$536 -98%
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 19 $691 +$557 +80%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $407 −$401 -99%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $1,013 +$710 +70%
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 18 $616 −$607 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $285 −$174 -61%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $850 +$894 +105%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $608 −$600 -99%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $242 −$237 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $538 +$405 +75%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $609 +$591 +97%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $789 +$449 +57%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $507 +$257 +51%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $1,469 +$1,023 +70%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $632 −$621 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $1,889 +$1,248 +66%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $1,110 −$1,095 -99%
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda Jun 16 $488 −$480 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $509 −$500 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $1,049 +$586 +56%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $643 −$634 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $2,392 +$391 +16%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $611 +$659 +108%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $486 −$480 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $363 −$357 -98%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $800 +$614 +77%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $1,017 +$455 +45%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $505 −$201 -40%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $458 +$588 +128%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,028 +$929 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $814 −$800 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $1,521 +$1,306 +86%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 06 $1,426 −$1,399 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $1,526 −$1,500 -98%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $1,478 −$1,452 -98%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 03 $1,929 −$1,900 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $3,852 −$3,800 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $2,927 −$1,087 -37%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 02 $2,232 +$1,611 +72%
Birmingham: Gabriela Knutson vs Joanna Garland Jun 02 $2,543 +$2,652 +104%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 02 $3,957 −$1,360 -34%
Makarska: Miriam Bulgaru vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 02 $1,126 −$1,100 -98%
Foggia: Andreea Prisacariu vs Nika Radisic Jun 02 $1,823 +$1,278 +70%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Harriet Dart Jun 02 $4,565 +$705 +15%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $1,338 +$1,060 +79%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) Jun 02 $4,947 −$4,900 -99%
Birmingham: Mark Lajal vs Leandro Riedi Jun 02 $1,872 +$1,158 +62%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Cirstea (+1.5) Jun 02 $3,400 −$3,361 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Guido Justo 49¢ $515 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 100¢ $1,118 1h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez SELL Conner Huertas Del Pino 93¢ $217 1h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 50¢ $121 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 57¢ $646 3h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze SELL Ekaterine Gorgodze 35¢ $642 10h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 50¢ $194 10h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 33¢ $501 11h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Collignon 45¢ $545 11h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo SELL Anastasiia Sobolieva 83¢ $1,248 12h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 45¢ $691 13h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $407 23h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 100¢ $1,722 32h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 58¢ $1,013 35h
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) BUY Parry 52¢ $616 37h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Dallas Wings 20¢ $111 43h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 50¢ $285 43h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $850 47h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $608 2d
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 31¢ $242 2d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 91¢ $943 2d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 51¢ $538 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $609 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 63¢ $789 2d
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan SELL Carole Monnet 80¢ $765 3d
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 52¢ $507 3d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo SELL Rinky Hijikata 96¢ $2,493 3d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Rinky Hijikata 56¢ $1,469 3d
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 44¢ $549 3d
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 46¢ $83 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.32 · official $367.32 (match) · 1994 history records