Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae2f…db23 crypto 958 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (283 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,949 (+199%) realized +$20,750 · open −$12,801
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%582W / 430L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day282.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$12,801
crypto 17% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (283 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 799 -5.6% -14.6% 56% 55% -6.6%
≤30d 1012 -2.7% -12.0% 58% 57% -5.0%
≤90d 1012 -2.7% -12.0% 58% 57% -5.0%
all 1012 -2.7% -12.0% 58% 57% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover282.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 57% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 56% -14.1%
15% -28.1% 43% -22.4%
20% -35.1% 26% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$6,800
Realized+$20,750
Unrealized−$12,801
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses582 / 430
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1012 / 958
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day282.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1012 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 33¢ 12¢ $19,597 $6,796 −$12,801 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -2713%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$4 -3047%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -2287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -3635%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -3774%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -3089%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4474%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -3912%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4333%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -3240%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -3958%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4038%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -3955%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4005%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -3143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4582%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4382%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -2962%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -3777%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -3857%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -3978%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4005%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4295%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -3746%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -2718%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4077%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -1962%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4283%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4077%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -3333%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -3900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -3733%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4040%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -3676%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4386%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -3447%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -3656%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4032%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -4041%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -3931%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,799.73 · official $6,796.49 (match) · 3500 history records