Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AE 0xae2d…2bc4 sports 874 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,497 (+4%) realized +$5,497 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate93%816W / 58L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$459est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$2,315
other 22% −$64
world 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +8.1% -2.2% 88% 20% -10.2%
≤30d 162 +5.6% -4.5% 87% 19% -8.8%
≤90d 702 +8.1% -2.2% 93% 11% -8.3%
all 874 +7.2% -3.0% 93% 11% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 11% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 5% -17.0%
15% -20.8% 4% -25.0%
20% -28.5% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$107 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,497
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses816 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$459
Open positions0
Markets (closed)874 / 874
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$171
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 874 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 24 $297 +$3 +1%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 24 $594 +$6 +1%
Jefferson Lerma: 2+ goals Jun 24 $14 $0 +0%
Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goals Jun 24 $17 $0 +3%
Jhon Arias: 3+ goals Jun 24 $14 $0 +0%
Simon Banza: 2+ goals Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Cédric Bakambu: 3+ goals Jun 24 $84 $0 +0%
Yoane Wissa: 3+ goals Jun 24 $527 +$1 +0%
Jhon Córdoba: 3+ goals Jun 24 $64 $0 +0%
Fiston Mayele: 2+ goals Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
José Fajardo: 1+ goals Jun 24 $83 $0 +0%
Toni Fruk: 2+ goals Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Mateo Kovačić: 1+ goals Jun 24 $14 $0 +0%
Igor Matanović: 3+ goals Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Ivan Perišić: 3+ goals Jun 24 $64 $0 +0%
Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals Jun 24 $113 $0 +0%
Igor Matanović: 2+ goals Jun 24 $26 $0 +0%
Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals Jun 24 $14 $0 +0%
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ goals Jun 24 $93 +$2 +2%
Ante Budimir: 3+ goals Jun 24 $78 $0 +0%
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals Jun 24 $273 $0 +0%
Martin Baturina: 2+ goals Jun 24 $78 $0 +0%
Cecilio Waterman: 3+ goals Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Ismael Díaz: 2+ goals Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $4,650 −$676 -14%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $270 +$30 +11%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $126 −$126 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $82 +$2 +3%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $446 +$4 +1%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $153 +$3 +2%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $161 +$1 +1%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $43 $0 +1%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 22 $240 $0 -0%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $209 +$3 +2%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $477 +$367 +77%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 22 $410 +$4 +1%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 22 $322 +$38 +12%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $263 +$137 +52%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $310 +$469 +152%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$30 +152%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $275 −$275 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $329 +$27 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $119 +$49 +41%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $98 +$55 +56%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $168 +$106 +63%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $588 −$588 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $495 +$5 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $323 +$218 +68%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $291 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Yoane Wissa: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $527 1h
Cédric Bakambu: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $84 1h
Jhon Arias: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Jefferson Lerma: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Jhon Córdoba: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $64 1h
Simon Banza: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Fiston Mayele: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goals BUY No 97¢ $17 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 99¢ $297 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 99¢ $594 1h
José Fajardo: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $83 4h
Mateo Kovačić: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $14 4h
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $273 4h
Toni Fruk: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 4h
Ismael Díaz: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 4h
Martin Baturina: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $78 4h
Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $14 4h
Igor Matanović: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 4h
Igor Matanović: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $26 4h
Ante Budimir: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $78 4h
Ivan Perišić: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $64 4h
Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $113 4h
Cecilio Waterman: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 4h
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ goals BUY No 98¢ $93 4h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 4¢ $3 8h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 4¢ $5 8h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 4¢ $0 8h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $78 8h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $3 8h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $30 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records